Fans of Counter-Strike’s esports scene had an incredibly exciting month in March thanks to ESL Pro League. However, the event is far from over, and in the final days of this month we’re going to be seeing the last group of the event entering the server.
Now, Group D promises to be quite the group for fans of North American Counter-Strike, for one. Then, we also have Astralis which is starring their new AWPer. The best team in the world is also returning to action, too. This is a group you won’t want to miss.
So, let’s take this small break at the start of the week and take a look at the storylines to follow in ESL Pro League Season XV’s Group D.
POLISH ASTRONAUTS – AGO
Last year, the lower tier scene of the European competition in Counter-Strike got surprised by AGO. The Polish team led by Denis “Grashog” Hristov managed to win ESEA Premier Season 38 – Europe, and booked a spot for themselves at Pro League 15. Since them, plenty have happened, including roster changes, but AGO is still here.
Now, as impressive as AGO was back then, the Poles haven’t been quite as strong this year. They are the lowest ranked team in HLTV World Rankings in the event besides FNATIC which doesn’t have a rank. Also, out of seven matches they’ve played in 2022, they have only won one, and they got beaten by the likes of Astralis’ academy team and Looking for Org.
Still, much like the aforementioned LFO and Party Astronauts, AGO can still take a lot out of EPL Season XV. For one, due to the group stage’s format, they can face a variety of teams which will give them some much needed experience. Then, this is a LAN tournament, which will also give these players a taste of how the offline environment is.
At the end of the day, there’s no way to expect a lot from AGO here. They are underdogs, and while we’d plenty of surprises in the tournament already, we aren’t seeing miracles yet. AGO is, much like Party Astronauts, a team fighting to take one map away and hopefully, make the most out of this run. Reality can be tough.
A DANGEROUS STEP – ASTRALIS
Astralis is coming to ESL Pro League Season XV with a new AWPer in their ranks. Replacing Philip “Lucky” Ewald is Asger “farlig” Jensen, who previously played for FunPlus Phoenix. Now, this move wasn’t a universally acclaimed roster move by the Danish organization, but it’s one they needed. During Astralis’ latest showings, it became clear that Lucky simply didn’t work under Lukas “gla1ve” Rossander.
However, we can’t pretend farlig will be a massive upgrade over Lucky. The Dane didn’t steal the spotlights in his time with FPP, and this change was certainly made more out of necessity than him being the ideal player that will solve all of Astralis’ issues. Now, Asger could become such player, but he has to prove himself. And it’s here, at EPL Season XV, where everyone will get a first taste of what farlig can do at this moment. It’s too early to judge? Yes. But the RMRs are just around the corner.
THE RIGHT AWPER…
Astralis issues, while not entirely related to Lucky not fitting with the team, were amplified by that. After all, an AWPer that the squad can rely on is a must-have nowadays, and not having one will affect everyone. Still, Lucky can only be blamed for so much. Andreas “Xyp9x” Højsleth and Kristian “k0nfig” Wienecke weren’t performing well before IEM Katowice 2022, for one. They considerably improved at that event, but the question if they can keep that level or better remains.
Moreover, fans are already questioning how much this team is missing their previous coach. Danny “zonic” Sørensen was an essential part of the roster’s success years ago, after all. Perhaps gla1ve is struggling without him in these turbulent times. His individual level, at least, seem to have taken quite a hit recently.
Nonetheless, this is the Astralis we’ll be having in ESL Pro League Season XV. They have shown glimpses of improvement at their showings at Katowice, sure. However, both of the players mentioned above have to shown that they can keep the same levels they shown then. As for farlig, he might need time to fully show what he’s able to do in the server, but right from the bat he’s expected to be an improvement over Lucky. Is that unfair to expect from him? Maybe.
Astralis opening match in EPL XV will see them facing Evil Geniuses, which certainly should be a winnable encounter for the Danes. More importantly, it will be a perfect opportunity for farlig to shine. From that match onwards, Astralis will be facing more and more difficult opponents such as Heroic and Na’Vi, and they will be taking the underdog roles against those squads. What they can truly accomplish here is up to them. Dangerous bet.
SLOWLY GETTING THERE – COMPLEXITY
Complexity didn’t have the start of the year they wanted, but they have been slowly improving since them. During ESL Challenger 48, they managed to win against HEET, and they finished in first place at the open qualifiers for the PGL Major Antwerp Americas RMR after beating Team Liquid. It was a best-of-one series, and one that only mattered for seeding purposes, but still.
We can’t pretend that this roster has figured all the issues they faced earlier on, though. Right now, Complexity still has to figure one of their players’ performances, Paytyn “junior” Johnson’s. The 21-year-old AWPer hasn’t impressed anyone since he joined the team, and Complexity simply can’t afford having him if he doesn’t step-up.
Since we’ve touched on the topic of underperforming players, we can’t ignore Michael “Grim” Wince. The ex-Team Liquid player has failed to impress as Complexity faced mostly lower tier competition so far, and he’s another one that definitely needs to polish his own individual level, too. Still, he has shown improvements since January, while Junior is still being a reliability at times.
LOOKING FOR INSPIRATION
Since Complexity couldn’t attend IEM Katowice 2022, the fifteenth season of EPL will be this roster’s first performance on LAN since the start of the year. This certainly makes this run even more interesting, as there’s a possibility – a small one – that Complexity ends being up Group D’s ENCE or Movistar Riders of their own group.
At the same time, there’s also a possibility – not as small – where Complexity struggles to perform here, too. After all, Junior is already struggling online and it’s not unrealistic to think that he might struggle even more in LAN. It’s unfortunate how much of Complexity’s potential is riding on their AWPer, but at the end of the day, Justin “FaNg” Coakley and Ricky “floppy” Kemery can only do so much.
In any case, Complexity is expected to be one of the three teams fighting for the third place in this group. Their biggest threats here are Astralis and Evil Geniuses, and both won’t be easy opponents to beat, but considering their current form, these are impossible battles either. For Grim and Junior, there has never been a better time to step up and save the week. Rise up.
NOT PAYING OFF – EVIL GENIUSES
Since their debut back in January, Evil Geniuses has failed to impress. Even at the first open qualifiers for the Americas RMR in which EG shouldn’t have issues, they managed to disappoint and failed to qualify back then. The team managed to qualify for the Americas RMR in their second chance, but nonetheless, that first run left everyone with even smaller hopes for this team than before.
Now, Evil Geniuses biggest issue isn’t hard to identify once you watch one of their series. Their AWPer, the once promising Tsvetelin “CeRq” Dimitrov, saw his individual form plummet during the online era. The Bulgarian had a disastrous year in 2021. So far in 2022, he doesn’t seem to be in a better form than then.
Unfortunately, CeRq’s form is a major issue, but not the only one with this Evil Geniuses roster. Vincent “Brehze” Cayonte, the other remaining player in this roster from past year’s EG roster, has also failed to impress. He has shown some glimpses of improvement compared to his 2021 form at least, but it won’t be enough for this roster.
THE BET THAT PAID OFF
Evil Geniuses did a number of bets by building this roster for the 2022 season. One was keeping Brehze and CeRq around – and this one isn’t paying off. The second one, though, was bringing Timothy “autimatic” Ta back from VALORANT. This bet, however, has paid off, as autimatic has proved to be in a much better place than when he left Counter-Strike. Moreover, if EG wants to have a shot here, they certainly will be relying on him.
Yet, autimatic is just one player, and as good as he might be, he can’t bring victories for EG alone. Jacky “Stewie2K” Yip is still making some vital plays while he takes the role of in-game leader. William “RUSH” Wierzba, if anything, is doing even better than expected considering he wasn’t the organization first choice for their roster. Yet, none of these players are bringing the frags, or the impact that a premier team needs.
So, this leaves us with an Evil Geniuses which has some good pieces in their roster, but these aren’t from the puzzle. It’s incredibly sad to see how far CeRq has fallen, and it’s even sadder to say this, but so far, he proved that keeping him was an error. Furthermore, there’s a very realistic possibility that this season of ESL Pro League is one of the last tournaments for him in this roster. Desperately hoping for better days.
THE PERFECT OPPORTUNITY – HEROIC
Heroic was one of the most interesting teams to follow back in IEM Katowice 2022. The Danes managed to look almost undefeatable at times, while at others they looked completely flat. It’s definitely difficult to shut Heroic’s main stars such as Martin “stavn” Lund down, but if a team manages to do it, Heroic simply can’t answer, as shown in their game against FaZe Clan.
Now, the big question is, which teams have what it takes to effectively counter Heroic fraggers? FaZe did so back in Katowice, but that team was in a completely different league back then. Team Vitality, Virtus.Pro and others have shown to be unable to do so, though, and this goes to show how well-structured Casper “cadiaN” Møller’s squad is. Heroic is often overlooked – and so are their players – but it’s undeniable how strong this team has become.
As for their hopes in Pro League, Heroic target here is the playoffs. In fact, considering how FaZe Clan, Gambit and VP have performed so far, Season XV is shaping up as an incredible opportunity for cadiaN and his boys to get another EPL trophy. Of course, ENCE and FURIA can’t be underestimated, but FaZe haven’t been the same team from Katowice, Gambit and Virtus.Pro forms aren’t perfect either, and Natus Vincere isn’t the undefeatable beast they once were.
So, it’s not an overstatement to say that Heroic has a golden opportunity at this season of ESL Pro League. The Danes might not be the most popular team around, but they are one of the best. Now, we’ll be seeing whether this team has peaked, or if there’s even more in this roster than what they have shown so far. Go for the gold.
HERE TO COMPETE – NATUS VINCERE
At the end of last year, Natus Vincere was building their own era in Counter-Strike. Oleksandr “s1mple” Kostyliev had just won their first CSGO Major. Natus Vincere looked indomitable at times. Overall, the future just looked perfect for Na’Vi. Unfortunately, though, things didn’t go the way everyone expected.
Back then, Natus Vincere started showing the first cracks. They ended the year by lifting BLAST Premier World Final, but they weren’t quite the undefeatable team they once were. 2022 came, and more flaws showed up. Earlier in the year, Na’Vi was beaten by Astralis, Ninjas in Pyjamas and other teams that were way below Natus Vincere’s level.
Then, IEM Katowice 2022 happened. The team barely survived a scare by ENCE, but managed to reach the playoffs without being beaten once. However, during the event, as we all known, the Russian invasion of Ukraine started, and Na’Vi as a whole was impacted. As you might remember, s1mple gave an incredible speech in stage, and it’s fair to say that the ongoing conflict certainly has everyone in the squad not in their best game.
So, conditions are far from ideal, but s1mple, Valerii “b1t” Vakhovskyi, Andrii “B1ad3” Horodenskyi and the rest of the roster are coming to ESL Pro League to compete, and we have nothing but respect for this. Independent of which Natus Vincere shows up, we can be sure that everyone will be doing their best, and to be quite honest, that’s all we can ask from this team right now. It’s unfortunate, but it can’t be helped.
ESL PRO LEAGUE SEASON XV RESUMES SHORTLY
This Wednesday, ESL Pro League returns as its final matches of the group stage will be taking place until Sunday. In order to keep up with the tournament and everything Counter-Strike, make sure to follow us here.
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